Iran leadership change by November 30?
12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 93¢ · $94K held · ends Dec 1
🔬
Research candidate
No
16
No 75%
$94.0K
-$55.81
92.6¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 93%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 44%
Freshness
Late
1775h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stupid22 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $21.7K | $21.4K | -$286.5 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
 GoriIIa | Noavg 92.5¢ | $19.5K | $19.6K | +$10.2 | 73% 229-85 (314) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 94.6¢ | $17.0K | $16.6K | -$376.13 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $11.7K | $12.0K | +$202.97 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 Udonsan | Noavg 92¢ | $8.0K | $8.0K | +$43.27 | 79% 250-67 (317) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 90.7¢ | $6.4K | $6.3K | +$85.67 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 90.3¢ | $30.7K | $6.0K | +$677.03 | 97% 2582-68 (2650) |
CA cashyCTR | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | -$372.86 | 71% 611-251 (862) |
 tja | Noavg 91¢ | $955.5 | $976.5 | +$15.75 | 73% 867-323 (1190) |
 Porx | Noavg 91.4¢ | $664.37 | $675.64 | +$7.63 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
ET ethBELIVERCTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $543.65 | $483.24 | -$90.61 | 40% 25-37 (62) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 89.6¢ | $235.66 | $251.93 | +$16.27 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 89¢ | $178 | $186 | +$7 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 91.3¢ | $226.78 | $177.35 | +$3.7 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $11.25 | $12 | +$0.75 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
 classifiedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.17 | $0.21 | +$0.04 | 58% 844-614 (1458) |
Invested
$21,672.17
Value
$21.4K
PnL
-$286.5
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
GoriIIaInvested
$19,487.75
Value
$19.6K
PnL
+$10.2
Record
73%
229-85 (314)
Invested
$16,968.29
Value
$16.6K
PnL
-$376.13
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
Invested
$11,712.04
Value
$12.0K
PnL
+$202.97
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
UdonsanInvested
$7,961.64
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$43.27
Record
79%
250-67 (317)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$6,375.35
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$85.67
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
Invested
$30,731.82
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$677.03
Record
97%
2582-68 (2650)
Invested
$1,617.27
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$372.86
Record
71%
611-251 (862)
tjaInvested
$955.5
Value
$976.5
PnL
+$15.75
Record
73%
867-323 (1190)
PorxInvested
$664.37
Value
$675.64
PnL
+$7.63
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
Invested
$543.65
Value
$483.24
PnL
-$90.61
Record
40%
25-37 (62)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$235.66
Value
$251.93
PnL
+$16.27
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$178
Value
$186
PnL
+$7
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
Invested
$226.78
Value
$177.35
PnL
+$3.7
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$11.25
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.75
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
classifiedCTR<$100Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
844-614 (1458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.