Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 73¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 28, 2027

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Thu, Jan 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 72.5¢

+11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares20,802

Combined PnL+$1.6K

No3 traders

Total Value$505.96

Total Shares1,874

Combined PnL-$63.65

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI simpleman	Yesavg 65¢	$6.8K	$7.6K	+$771.28	47% 456-520 (976)
PI pieped	Yesavg 68.1¢	$2.7K	$4.4K	+$390.01	42% 71-100 (171)
88 881112	Yesavg 56.3¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$295.29	38% 567-944 (1511)
KimJonEn	Yesavg 67.5¢	$675	$740	+$50	75% 946-311 (1257)
PM pmcb	Yesavg 62¢	$620	$740	+$105	91% 49-5 (54)
CD CDAP1	Yesavg 70.9¢	$378.08	$370.78	+$3.55	30% 11-26 (37)
RememberAmalekCTR	Noavg 34.9¢	$323.71	$269.54	-$54.16	56% 973-770 (1743)
LI lissartterCTR	Noavg 34.3¢	$211.4	$209.42	-$1.98	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$78.3	$99.9	+$19.58	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Noavg 38.3¢	$34.5	$27	-$7.5	65% 527-282 (809)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Yesavg 65.5¢	$20.01	$22.1	+$2.09	39% 175-269 (444)
FO forgetfuldory<$100	Yesavg 60.5¢	$8.24	$8.67	+$0.3	— 5-5 (10)

simpleman

Yes

Invested

$6,810.81

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$771.28

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

pieped

Yes

Invested

$2,688.44

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$390.01

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

881112

Yes

Invested

$1,118.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$295.29

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

KimJonEn

Yes

Invested

$675

Value

$740

PnL

+$50

Record

75%

946-311 (1257)

pmcb

Yes

Invested

$620

Value

$740

PnL

+$105

Record

91%

49-5 (54)

CDAP1

Yes

Invested

$378.08

Value

$370.78

PnL

+$3.55

Record

30%

11-26 (37)

RememberAmalekCTR

Invested

$323.71

Value

$269.54

PnL

-$54.16

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

lissartterCTR

Invested

$211.4

Value

$209.42

PnL

-$1.98

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.3

Value

$99.9

PnL

+$19.58

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Invested

$34.5

Value

$27

PnL

-$7.5

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.01

Value

$22.1

PnL

+$2.09

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

forgetfuldory<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.24

Value

$8.67

PnL

+$0.3

Record

—

5-5 (10)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.