Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$208.89

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 77.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares7,304

Combined PnL+$345.59

Yes4 traders

Total Value$650.24

Total Shares2,827

Combined PnL-$136.69

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4510h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
twinna	Noavg 69¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$297.5	50% 92-93 (185)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 76.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$25.82	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 77.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$11.72	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 22.7¢	$508.08	$415.15	-$80.17	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yes	$191.95	$191.95	-$44.22	55% 463-373 (836)
11 11122<$100	Noavg 63¢	$41.81	$51.36	+$9.55	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$35.65	$36.16	+$0.27	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$30.96	$31.65	+$0.69	57% 3068-2356 (5424)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$24	$11.5	-$13	65% 1075-583 (1658)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$3.19	$3.92	+$0.73	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

twinna

Invested

$2,415

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$297.5

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,522

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$25.82

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

cocococococo

Invested

$1,311.37

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.72

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$508.08

Value

$415.15

PnL

-$80.17

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$191.95

Value

$191.95

PnL

-$44.22

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

11122<$100

Invested

$41.81

Value

$51.36

PnL

+$9.55

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$35.65

Value

$36.16

PnL

+$0.27

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.96

Value

$31.65

PnL

+$0.69

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$13

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$0.73

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4510h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.2%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.