Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

82.6¢ → 99.9¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares16,687

Combined PnL+$2.8K

No2 traders

Total Value$0.78

Total Shares523

Combined PnL-$85.39

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Yesavg 71¢	$4.2K	$5.9K	+$1.7K	47% 476-535 (1011)
0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b	Yesavg 96.1¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$144.98	72% 71-28 (99)
The-Joker	Yesavg 87¢	$3.7K	$4.2K	+$540.52	68% 1507-701 (2208)
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 69.3¢	$967.72	$1.3K	+$332.5	60% 314-210 (524)
CosmicCedar	Yesavg 81¢	$137.9	$170.08	+$32.09	60% 798-532 (1330)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 78.4¢	$66.67	$80	+$13.33	50% 357-357 (714)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 99.7¢	$35.27	$35.35	+$0.08	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
AV aviato<$100	Yesavg 94.4¢	$31.2	$33.02	+$1.8	84% 2440-449 (2889)
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100	Noavg 19.9¢	$84.17	$0.63	-$83.54	22% 145-528 (673)
NadmiCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$2	$0.15	-$1.85	47% 2036-2278 (4314)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$4,188.05

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b

Yes

Invested

$4,800.85

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$144.98

Record

72%

71-28 (99)

The-Joker

Yes

Invested

$3,670.52

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$540.52

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$967.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$332.5

Record

60%

314-210 (524)

CosmicCedar

Yes

Invested

$137.9

Value

$170.08

PnL

+$32.09

Record

60%

798-532 (1330)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.67

Value

$80

PnL

+$13.33

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.27

Value

$35.35

PnL

+$0.08

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

aviato<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.2

Value

$33.02

PnL

+$1.8

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

TheImpasseCTR<$100

Invested

$84.17

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$83.54

Record

22%

145-528 (673)

NadmiCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.85

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.