Consensus PnL $5.6K · win rate 65% (90–48, n=138) · PM monthly #889 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$5.6K
Record
90W / 48L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 138 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#682
Source
PM monthly #889
Record (90 d)
51/60 · 85%
Trades
32
Markets
165
Volume
$59.6K
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Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $5.0K · now 90¢ · in at 93¢against the consensus (No)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No $587 · now 80¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (66% of 53)
- Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?Yes $404 · now 97¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (47% of 30)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $215 · now 91¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (78% of 110)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $201 · now 93¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (67% of 157)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?No $40 · now 100¢ · in at 92¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Yes $21 · now 2¢with the consensus (35% of 40)
Specialties
97 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 62¢- Elections
+18 pts
side won 82% of 61 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +12%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 42% of 19 at an average 59¢ entry (−17 pts against the price), ROI −18%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 18% of 11)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 47% of 19)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 81% of 26)
- 70¢ and up: 42%(won 93% of 41)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.