Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 34¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$460.14

Smart Money Entry

28.9¢ → 33.5¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 34%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares9,047

Combined PnL+$419.51

No2 traders

Total Value$312.91

Total Shares471

Combined PnL+$40.63

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4713h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 24.6¢	$610.86	$837.49	+$226.63	69% 987-450 (1437)
mrworldwideCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$840	$792	-$36	69% 804-359 (1163)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$604	$608.54	+$13.76	61% 1200-767 (1967)
GayPrideCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$340.94	$512.41	+$179.24	49% 357-367 (724)
IM immanuelcan	Noavg 74¢	$65.69	$247.59	+$40.53	53% 906-789 (1695)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$102.25	$102.25	+$1.55	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
IN insideroCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$64.16	$90.1	+$25.94	76% 291-93 (384)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 66.2¢	$65.21	$65.32	+$0.11	40% 174-265 (439)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$34.83	$42.57	+$8.39	40% 704-1061 (1765)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$610.86

Value

$837.49

PnL

+$226.63

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

mrworldwideCTR

Yes

Invested

$840

Value

$792

PnL

-$36

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$604

Value

$608.54

PnL

+$13.76

Record

61%

1200-767 (1967)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$340.94

Value

$512.41

PnL

+$179.24

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

immanuelcan

Invested

$65.69

Value

$247.59

PnL

+$40.53

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.25

Value

$102.25

PnL

+$1.55

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

insideroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.16

Value

$90.1

PnL

+$25.94

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$65.21

Value

$65.32

PnL

+$0.11

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.83

Value

$42.57

PnL

+$8.39

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 34%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4713h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.4%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$182.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

282.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.