Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 90¢ · $8K held · ends Dec 31

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 89.5¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares8,226

Combined PnL+$831.29

Yes3 traders

Total Value$913.5

Total Shares8,700

Combined PnL$-2.4K

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4482h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT BTCGambler247	Noavg 70¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$711.99	47% 217-240 (457)
DE denizz	Noavg 67.2¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$98.85	68% 597-284 (881)
TH thoodr	Noavg 91.3¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$36.05	96% 631-24 (655)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$3.0K	$787.5	$-2.2K	53% 3043-2719 (5762)
Dr.mett	Noavg 65¢	$98.91	$136.25	+$37.34	86% 1417-234 (1651)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$250.66	$84	-$166.66	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
-Yang-<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$55.1	$71.85	+$16.75	82% 275-61 (336)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$58.23	$42	-$16.24	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516<$100	Noavg 70¢	$5	$6.36	+$1.43	49% 112-118 (230)
MisTKy<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.47	$4.45	+$0.97	71% 568-236 (804)

BTCGambler247

Invested

$2,555.85

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$711.99

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

denizz

Invested

$1,947.8

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$98.85

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

thoodr

Invested

$1,852.9

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$36.05

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,999.99

Value

$787.5

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

53%

3043-2719 (5762)

Dr.mett

Invested

$98.91

Value

$136.25

PnL

+$37.34

Record

86%

1417-234 (1651)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$250.66

Value

$84

PnL

-$166.66

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

-Yang-<$100

Invested

$55.1

Value

$71.85

PnL

+$16.75

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.23

Value

$42

PnL

-$16.24

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516<$100

Invested

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$1.43

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

MisTKy<$100

Invested

$3.47

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.97

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4482h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.