Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 64¢ · $13K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 64¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares9,168

Combined PnL-$235.77

No6 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares19,361

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

1058h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Xeny	Yesavg 60.4¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$150.39	60% 978-662 (1640)
yen4uCTR	Noavg 16.4¢	$1.1K	$2.4K	+$1.3K	86% 809-136 (945)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Noavg 24.9¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$525.24	57% 1114-837 (1951)
Dragontree	Yesavg 73.2¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$309.99	58% 1250-888 (2138)
eCashCTR	Noavg 37.4¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$47.82	68% 331-155 (486)
PaddyAlpha	Yesavg 70.7¢	$484.2	$449.86	-$34.35	59% 986-684 (1670)
0x8712CTR	Noavg 11¢	$110	$350	+$250	30% 102-237 (339)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 33¢	$329.99	$349.99	+$30	36% 397-691 (1088)
paddaa	Yesavg 67.2¢	$360	$342.87	-$17.13	56% 836-645 (1481)
M2 M2sx92kljs42CTR	Noavg 17¢	$79.86	$164.42	+$89.26	73% 350-129 (479)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 66.6¢	$141.45	$141.02	-$0.43	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100	Yesavg 61.1¢	$102.4	$102.57	+$0.17	39% 175-269 (444)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.1¢	$58.9	$61.68	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 35.9¢	$41.93	$40.88	+$0.17
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 86.2¢	$88.08	$63.81	-$24.26	53% 6690-5887 (12577)

Xeny

Yes

Invested

$2,555.15

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$150.39

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

yen4uCTR

Invested

$1,125.07

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Invested

$1,933.46

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$525.24

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

Dragontree

Yes

Invested

$2,474.27

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$309.99

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

eCashCTR

Invested

$1,369.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$47.82

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

PaddyAlpha

Yes

Invested

$484.2

Value

$449.86

PnL

-$34.35

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

0x8712CTR

Invested

$110

Value

$350

PnL

+$250

Record

30%

102-237 (339)

troimCTR

Invested

$329.99

Value

$349.99

PnL

+$30

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$360

Value

$342.87

PnL

-$17.13

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

M2sx92kljs42CTR

Invested

$79.86

Value

$164.42

PnL

+$89.26

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$141.45

Value

$141.02

PnL

-$0.43

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$102.4

Value

$102.57

PnL

+$0.17

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Both legs:

Yes$58.961.1¢+$0

No$41.9335.9¢+$0.17

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.08

Value

$63.81

PnL

-$24.26

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

1058h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.9%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.