US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

16 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 74¢ · $165K held · ends Dec 1

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$165.3K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 73.5¢

+3% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 30 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$149.4K

Total Shares203,396

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares57,117

Combined PnL-$529.08

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (21 on No) and the top 1000 (19 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 21

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Noavg 71.1¢	$42.4K	$43.6K	+$1.1K	61% 839-544 (1383)
CA carlos484	Noavg 72¢	$30.0K	$30.4K	+$410.71	61% 20-13 (33)
0X 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2	Noavg 71¢	$26.4K	$27.2K	+$1.3K	96% 328-13 (341)
MEPP	Noavg 70.9¢	$14.6K	$15.1K	+$532.15	64% 633-352 (985)
classified	Noavg 70.2¢	$12.9K	$12.3K	+$706.32	58% 844-614 (1458)
paddaa	Noavg 68¢	$7.8K	$7.9K	+$163.27	56% 836-645 (1481)
Mr-Krabs	Noavg 72.5¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$70.35	78% 574-165 (739)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 24.7¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$266.62	40% 704-1062 (1766)
CarCTR	Yesavg 24.4¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$38.38	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
MisTKyCTR	Yesavg 27.2¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0.24	71% 568-236 (804)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 79¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$147.56	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$291.47	36% 190-333 (523)
Dragontree	Noavg 74.7¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$74.07	58% 1250-888 (2138)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$67.01	38% 567-944 (1511)
GollumGekko	Noavg 73.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.56	68% 2074-958 (3032)
smellyEllie	Noavg 70.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$42.5	50% 970-988 (1958)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 78.1¢	$1.0K	$980.82	-$51.8	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 27.8¢	$839.37	$800.25	-$39.12	38% 20-32 (52)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 25.3¢	$3.9K	$580.64	+$130.36	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.3¢	$431.16	$451.51	+$121.45
└ No leg	Noavg 70.4¢	$123.64	$129.13	+$8.91
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 53.2¢	$376.18	$516.64	+$140.45	73% 350-129 (479)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 71.3¢	$547.92	$465.16	+$2.66	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
RelaccsedCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$405.41	$342.06	-$69.68	56% 1213-967 (2180)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$360	$270	-$95	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 28.4¢	$275	$265	-$10	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
SE SeniorLaghetto	Noavg 71¢	$203.77	$209.51	+$7.18	69% 404-180 (584)

tetrase

Invested

$42,441.88

Value

$43.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

carlos484

Invested

$30,000

Value

$30.4K

PnL

+$410.71

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2

Invested

$26,447.57

Value

$27.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

96%

328-13 (341)

MEPP

Invested

$14,643.91

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$532.15

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

classified

Invested

$12,864.9

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$706.32

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

paddaa

Invested

$7,781.57

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$163.27

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

Mr-Krabs

Invested

$5,124.46

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$70.35

Record

78%

574-165 (739)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,559.16

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$266.62

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,613.14

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$38.38

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

MisTKyCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,552.39

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0.24

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

sbimbg

Invested

$1,975

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$147.56

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,082.91

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$291.47

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Dragontree

Invested

$1,679.06

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$74.07

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,498.13

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$67.01

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

GollumGekko

Invested

$1,092.34

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.56

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

smellyEllie

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$42.5

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,032.61

Value

$980.82

PnL

-$51.8

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$839.37

Value

$800.25

PnL

-$39.12

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,879.67

Value

$580.64

PnL

+$130.36

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

Yes$431.1625.3¢+$121.45

No$123.6470.4¢+$8.91

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$376.18

Value

$516.64

PnL

+$140.45

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$547.92

Value

$465.16

PnL

+$2.66

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

RelaccsedCTR

Yes

Invested

$405.41

Value

$342.06

PnL

-$69.68

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Yes

Invested

$360

Value

$270

PnL

-$95

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$275

Value

$265

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

SeniorLaghetto

Invested

$203.77

Value

$209.51

PnL

+$7.18

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 30 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (21 on No) and the top 1000 (19 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 21

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.