Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 55¢ · $15K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

-$672.17

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 54.5¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares21,905

Combined PnL-$623.11

No5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,923

Combined PnL-$49.06

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

1034h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 58¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$5.4	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
Dragontree	Yesavg 66.3¢	$3.7K	$3.0K	-$651.02	58% 1250-888 (2138)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 54¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$20.9	50% 415-417 (832)
eCashCTR	Noavg 49.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$11.02	68% 331-155 (486)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Noavg 49¢	$946.98	$879.34	-$67.64	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 61.4¢	$471.53	$467.24	-$4.29	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
PaddyAlpha	Yesavg 52.5¢	$215.25	$223.45	+$8.2	59% 986-684 (1670)
PMTraderAdamCTR	Noavg 48.5¢	$196	$182	-$14	77% 830-249 (1079)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Noavg 39¢	$156	$182	+$26	57% 1114-837 (1951)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 44.3¢	$183.21	$178.77	-$4.44	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 56¢	$137.2	$133.53	-$3.68	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 61.9¢	$38.06	$39.43	+$1.37	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$5,782.45

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$5.4

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

Dragontree

Yes

Invested

$3,659.55

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$651.02

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$2,257.2

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$20.9

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

eCashCTR

Invested

$1,716.82

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$11.02

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Invested

$946.98

Value

$879.34

PnL

-$67.64

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$471.53

Value

$467.24

PnL

-$4.29

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

PaddyAlpha

Yes

Invested

$215.25

Value

$223.45

PnL

+$8.2

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

PMTraderAdamCTR

Invested

$196

Value

$182

PnL

-$14

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Invested

$156

Value

$182

PnL

+$26

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$183.21

Value

$178.77

PnL

-$4.44

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$137.2

Value

$133.53

PnL

-$3.68

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.06

Value

$39.43

PnL

+$1.37

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

1034h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.5%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.