Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 76¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$585.88

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 75.5¢

-11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares6,338

Combined PnL-$547.34

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares4,098

Combined PnL-$38.53

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

439h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Noavg 86.5¢	$4.3K	$3.8K	-$548.27	61% 839-544 (1383)
theta-thunberg	Noavg 78.3¢	$672.41	$648.33	-$24.07	56% 429-337 (766)
AR Arman2CTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$500	$473.41	-$26.59	58% 332-242 (574)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 72.8¢	$217.8	$249.15	+$31.35	65% 527-282 (809)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$159.63	$152.36	-$7.27	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$179.04	$146.42	-$32.62	50% 415-417 (832)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	$47.3	$78.89	+$31.59	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
PaddyAlpha<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$79	$74.56	-$4.45	59% 986-684 (1670)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$98.35	$65.12	-$33.22	57% 1114-837 (1951)
ST StraddleSellerCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$27.22	$63.3	+$36.08	60% 174-115 (289)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$62.56	$60.65	-$1.91	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$31	$24.5	-$6.5	56% 973-770 (1743)

tetrase

Invested

$4,318.48

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$548.27

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

theta-thunberg

Invested

$672.41

Value

$648.33

PnL

-$24.07

Record

56%

429-337 (766)

Arman2CTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$473.41

PnL

-$26.59

Record

58%

332-242 (574)

melonmanm

Invested

$217.8

Value

$249.15

PnL

+$31.35

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$159.63

Value

$152.36

PnL

-$7.27

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$179.04

Value

$146.42

PnL

-$32.62

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.3

Value

$78.89

PnL

+$31.59

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

PaddyAlpha<$100

Invested

$79

Value

$74.56

PnL

-$4.45

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.35

Value

$65.12

PnL

-$33.22

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

StraddleSellerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.22

Value

$63.3

PnL

+$36.08

Record

60%

174-115 (289)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$62.56

Value

$60.65

PnL

-$1.91

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

439h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.2%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.