Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 24 of 36 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Como 1907 win on 2026-11-04?

24 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 12¢ · $250K held · ended Nov 4

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$249.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.3K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 11.5¢

-77% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

24 of 36 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No24 traders

Total Value$188.2K

Total Shares384,337

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$32.9K

Total Shares61,612

Combined PnL-$611.58

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Noavg 49.1¢	$119.8K	$119.6K	-$127.87	48% 303-327 (630)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Yesavg 52.2¢	$24.2K	$23.6K	-$578.64	47% 497-566 (1063)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 49.8¢	$23.7K	$23.3K	-$403.94	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 50.9¢	$11.0K	$11.2K	+$178.4	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.9¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$18.2
└ No leg	Noavg 47.4¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$160.19
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$17.0K	$8.1K	$-9.0K	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.6¢	$3.4K	$4.2K	+$767.91
└ No leg	Noavg 47.3¢	$13.6K	$3.9K	$-9.7K
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 50.7¢	$7.6K	$7.4K	-$236.72	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
CO CornerGamingCTR	Noavg 50.3¢	$7.4K	$7.2K	-$192.52	48% 12-13 (25)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 53.1¢	$7.6K	$7.0K	-$372.32	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Noavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$100	54% 755-638 (1393)
MR MrBentlyCTR	Noavg 50.2¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$121.83	52% 574-523 (1097)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 51.4¢	$11.8K	$4.4K	-$693.14	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
E4 e46m3	Yesavg 51.2¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$12.5	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9ARB<$100	Yesavg 64.8¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$104.08	58% 372-264 (636)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.8¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$318.88
└ No leg	Noavg 30.7¢	$710.74	$1.1K	+$422.96
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$75	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 52.5¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$90.55	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 89.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$22.24	89% 990-128 (1118)
boyauCTR	Noavg 50¢	$4.0K	$2.0K	-$20	44% 229-295 (524)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 51.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$64.21	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$64.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$765	$765	+$0
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 42.6¢	$3.5K	$1.7K	-$490.2	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
RN1CTR	Noavg 28.9¢	$963.46	$1.6K	+$667.63	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 70.4¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$328.82	58% 1993-1472 (3465)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.4¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$424.22
└ No leg	Noavg 36.8¢	$288.1	$383.5	+$95.4
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$23.03	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
└ No leg	Noavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$23.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$363.44	$363.44	-$0
FaroeseNationalist	Yesavg 52.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$27.76	50% 541-545 (1086)
OL OldZz	Yesavg 52.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$25.61	47% 113-129 (242)
Fuentes31	Yesavg 52.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$24.5	53% 671-597 (1268)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Invested

$119,767.92

Value

$119.6K

PnL

-$127.87

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Yes

Invested

$24,196.58

Value

$23.6K

PnL

-$578.64

Record

47%

497-566 (1063)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$23,710.6

Value

$23.3K

PnL

-$403.94

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$11,032.67

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$178.4

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

Both legs:

Yes$6,174.6550.9¢+$18.2

No$4,858.0247.4¢+$160.19

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$17,008.19

Value

$8.1K

PnL

$-9.0K

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Both legs:

Yes$3,399.7870.6¢+$767.91

No$13,608.4147.3¢$-9.7K

CannaeCTR

Invested

$7,637.38

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$236.72

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

CornerGamingCTR

Invested

$7,374.53

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$192.52

Record

48%

12-13 (25)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$7,593.07

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$372.32

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

pltrkr111CTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$100

Record

54%

755-638 (1393)

MrBentlyCTR

Invested

$4,899.33

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$121.83

Record

52%

574-523 (1097)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$11,753.72

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$693.14

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

e46m3

Yes

Invested

$2,562.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$12.5

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,209.6

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$104.08

Record

58%

372-264 (636)

Both legs:

Yes$1,498.8664.8¢-$318.88

No$710.7430.7¢+$422.96

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,319.97

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$75

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

No$1,299.9752¢-$75

Yes$1,02051¢+$0

hi774cCTR

Invested

$2,391.43

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$90.55

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$2,011

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$22.24

Record

89%

990-128 (1118)

boyauCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$20

Record

44%

229-295 (524)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,948.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$64.21

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Both legs:

No$1,183.4151.8¢-$64.21

Yes$76551¢+$0

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$3,492.72

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$490.2

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

RN1CTR

Invested

$963.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$667.63

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,826.91

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$328.82

Record

58%

1993-1472 (3465)

Both legs:

Yes$1,538.8170.4¢-$424.22

No$288.136.8¢+$95.4

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$1,444.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$23.03

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,160.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$27.76

Record

50%

541-545 (1086)

OldZz

Yes

Invested

$1,071.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$25.61

Record

47%

113-129 (242)

Fuentes31

Yes

Invested

$1,024.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$24.5

Record

53%

671-597 (1268)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

24 of 36 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.