Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 17 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Porto win on 2026-11-04?

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 49¢ · $196K held · ends Nov 4

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$195.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 48.5¢

+0% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$159.5K

Total Shares331,483

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,372

Combined PnL+$2.16

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Noavg 48.3¢	$90.0K	$88.5K	$-1.5K	48% 303-327 (630)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 48.5¢	$26.8K	$26.3K	-$480.6	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 49.3¢	$22.5K	$21.9K	-$598.62	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.3¢	$13.3K	$12.7K	-$633.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.8¢	$9.2K	$9.2K	+$35
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 49¢	$12.9K	$12.3K	-$398.52	49% 14322-14999 (29321)
CO CornerGamingCTR	Noavg 48¢	$11.0K	$10.8K	-$230	48% 12-13 (25)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Noavg 49.2¢	$7.4K	$7.3K	-$112.71	47% 497-565 (1062)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 49.4¢	$6.6K	$6.3K	-$323.01	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$6.1K	$5.9K	+$34.91	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.2¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$123.23
└ No leg	Noavg 51.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$88.31
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$3.5K	$2.8K	+$14.43	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$23.12
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$750.94	$788.48	+$37.55
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$14.52	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$19.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$515.27	$541.47	+$5.47
ReformedxCTR	Noavg 52¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$200	51% 859-824 (1683)
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 49.8¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$13.17	50% 4958-4886 (9844)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 52¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$13.74	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 50.3¢	$2.9K	$1.7K	-$75.88	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 49.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$4.66	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
HRTrading	Yesavg 51.3¢	$510.8	$517.78	+$6.98	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
AF afraz	Yesavg 54.2¢	$509.91	$493.5	-$16.41	58% 177-126 (303)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 49.4¢	$319.36	$307.33	-$12.03	54% 1184-1023 (2207)
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 52¢	$260	$237.5	-$22.5	49% 3292-3422 (6714)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 52¢	$236.64	$234.36	-$2.28	64% 1890-1047 (2937)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 49.2¢	$198.1	$191.07	-$7.03	52% 1140-1038 (2178)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$98	$94	-$4	47% 11065-12394 (23459)
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 49.3¢	$125.93	$90.01	-$3.67	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$14.16	$13.66	-$0.5	52% 1153-1075 (2228)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$10	$9.4	-$0.6	74% 2420-861 (3281)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Invested

$89,999.87

Value

$88.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$26,754.73

Value

$26.3K

PnL

-$480.6

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$22,514.47

Value

$21.9K

PnL

-$598.62

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

Both legs:

No$13,342.1149.3¢-$633.62

Yes$9,172.3751.8¢+$35

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$12,872.74

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$398.52

Record

49%

14322-14999 (29321)

CornerGamingCTR

Invested

$11,039.98

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$230

Record

48%

12-13 (25)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Invested

$7,420.99

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$112.71

Record

47%

497-565 (1062)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$6,575.14

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$323.01

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$6,100.42

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$34.91

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

Both legs:

Yes$4,29052.2¢+$123.23

No$1,810.4251.3¢-$88.31

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$3,528.81

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$14.43

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

Both legs:

No$2,110.9750¢-$23.12

Yes$750.9450¢+$37.55

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,455.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$14.52

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

Both legs:

No$1,999.650¢-$19.99

Yes$515.2750¢+$5.47

ReformedxCTR

Invested

$2,080

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$200

Record

51%

859-824 (1683)

hi774cCTR

Invested

$1,948.33

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$13.17

Record

50%

4958-4886 (9844)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$1,801.93

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$13.74

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$2,899.79

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$75.88

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,807.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$4.66

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$510.8

Value

$517.78

PnL

+$6.98

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

afraz

Yes

Invested

$509.91

Value

$493.5

PnL

-$16.41

Record

58%

177-126 (303)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$319.36

Value

$307.33

PnL

-$12.03

Record

54%

1184-1023 (2207)

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$260

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

49%

3292-3422 (6714)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$236.64

Value

$234.36

PnL

-$2.28

Record

64%

1890-1047 (2937)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$198.1

Value

$191.07

PnL

-$7.03

Record

52%

1140-1038 (2178)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$98

Value

$94

PnL

-$4

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$125.93

Value

$90.01

PnL

-$3.67

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$14.16

Value

$13.66

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

1153-1075 (2228)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

74%

2420-861 (3281)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.