Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (41%) · Yes at 67¢ · $67K held · ends Nov 4

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 41%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$66.6K

Combined PnL

-$335.74

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 66.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 17 top traders (41%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares31,139

Combined PnL-$135.39

No10 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares20,787

Combined PnL-$200.35

Yes — 41%No — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 32.8¢	$17.1K	$17.3K	+$229.38	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
└ No leg	Noavg 32.8¢	$10.6K	$10.8K	+$221.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.4¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	+$7.75
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 65.9¢	$10.3K	$10.3K	-$25.07	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.9¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$51.16
└ No leg	Noavg 34¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$76.22
ET Ethanael02	Yesavg 68.1¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$109.99	63% 105-62 (167)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684	Yesavg 68.1¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	-$135.31	37% 510-855 (1365)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 66¢	$8.8K	$5.0K	+$74.17	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$9.09	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$20.88
└ No leg	Noavg 33.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$11.79
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 34.2¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$133.31	54% 1184-1023 (2207)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 66¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$3.44	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$25.4	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10
└ No leg	Noavg 35¢	$836.09	$800.7	-$35.4
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 34¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	-$34.75	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66¢	$990	$997.5	+$7.5
└ No leg	Noavg 34¢	$1.0K	$990.12	-$42.25
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 66.4¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$30.58	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$2.95
└ No leg	Noavg 35.9¢	$488.82	$456.22	-$33.53
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 34.1¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$60.14	51% 1089-1037 (2126)
DV dv-pm	Yesavg 64¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$40.34	49% 3292-3422 (6714)
0X 0xdea296167f11b40d6e0195599dc92900363be981CTR	Noavg 33¢	$494.99	$502.49	+$7.5	63% 17-10 (27)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 34.1¢	$278.3	$269.28	-$9.02	52% 1140-1038 (2178)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$196.83	$198.82	+$1.98	56% 7713-6183 (13896)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66¢	$132	$133	+$1
└ No leg	Noavg 33¢	$64.83	$65.82	+$0.98
HRTradingARB<$100	Noavg 34.1¢	$165.33	$162.95	-$2.38	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
└ No leg	Noavg 34.1¢	$116.3	$112.53	-$3.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.2¢	$49.03	$50.42	+$1.39
nigiri99	Yesavg 66¢	$156.51	$156.42	-$0.09	46% 8405-9865 (18270)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 34.1¢	$139.15	$134.64	-$4.51	52% 1153-1075 (2228)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 33¢	$132	$134	+$2	51% 1789-1707 (3496)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$85.71	$87	+$1.3	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 34.3¢	$108.38	$86.17	-$2.25	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
KA Kaczka<$100	Yesavg 68.1¢	$45.74	$44.66	-$1.08	51% 457-439 (896)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$39.57	$38.41	-$1.75	49% 14322-14999 (29321)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.65	-$0.18	52% 8574-7820 (16394)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$17,097.34

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$229.38

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

Both legs:

No$10,569.5532.8¢+$221.63

Yes$6,527.866.4¢+$7.75

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$10,282.63

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$25.07

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

Both legs:

Yes$5,470.0465.9¢+$51.16

No$4,812.5934¢-$76.22

Ethanael02

Yes

Invested

$6,775.99

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$109.99

Record

63%

105-62 (167)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684

Yes

Invested

$5,739.93

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$135.31

Record

37%

510-855 (1365)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$8,808.78

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$74.17

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,487.65

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$9.09

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

Both legs:

Yes$2,755.8366¢+$20.88

No$1,731.8333.7¢-$11.79

LimousinCTR

Invested

$3,956.36

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$133.31

Record

54%

1184-1023 (2207)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,663.94

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$3.44

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,156.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$25.4

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

Both legs:

Yes$1,32066¢+$10

No$836.0935¢-$35.4

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,117.13

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$34.75

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

Both legs:

Yes$99066¢+$7.5

No$1,004.934¢-$42.25

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,065.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$30.58

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

Both legs:

Yes$1,486.6566.4¢+$2.95

No$488.8235.9¢-$33.53

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$1,855.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$60.14

Record

51%

1089-1037 (2126)

dv-pm

Yes

Invested

$1,032.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$40.34

Record

49%

3292-3422 (6714)

0xdea296167f11b40d6e0195599dc92900363be981CTR

Invested

$494.99

Value

$502.49

PnL

+$7.5

Record

63%

17-10 (27)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$278.3

Value

$269.28

PnL

-$9.02

Record

52%

1140-1038 (2178)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$196.83

Value

$198.82

PnL

+$1.98

Record

56%

7713-6183 (13896)

Both legs:

Yes$13266¢+$1

No$64.8333¢+$0.98

HRTradingARB<$100

Invested

$165.33

Value

$162.95

PnL

-$2.38

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Both legs:

Invested

$156.51

Value

$156.42

PnL

-$0.09

Record

46%

8405-9865 (18270)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$139.15

Value

$134.64

PnL

-$4.51

Record

52%

1153-1075 (2228)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$132

Value

$134

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1789-1707 (3496)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$85.71

Value

$87

PnL

+$1.3

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$108.38

Value

$86.17

PnL

-$2.25

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Kaczka<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.74

Value

$44.66

PnL

-$1.08

Record

51%

457-439 (896)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$39.57

Value

$38.41

PnL

-$1.75

Record

49%

14322-14999 (29321)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

8574-7820 (16394)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 17 top traders (41%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.