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Consensus PnL $44K · win rate 57% (16–12, n=28) · PM monthly #475 · holds 17 consensus positions
0x0191d054...8dd0541dPolymarket
🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$43.6K
Record
16W / 12L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 28 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1365
Source
PM monthly #475
Trades
13
Markets
56
Volume
$536.4K
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 17 on the consensus side (88%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $109K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $66K · now 99¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $57K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $25K · now 70¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes $16K · now 74¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (69% of 45)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No $8.7K · now 74¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (63% of 32)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $3.6K · now 73¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No $3.4K · now 84¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
Specialties
28 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 58¢- MLB
+19 pts
side won 69% of 13 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +15%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 100% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 38% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 70% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 63% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.