Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 84¢ · $20K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
20
No 85%
$19.5K
$1.6K
76.1¢ → 83.5¢
+10% since entry · 17 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 84%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
17 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MisTKy | Noavg 82.2¢ | $5.9K | $5.7K | +$96.57 | 71% 568-236 (804) |
 JSG3 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.1K | $3.4K | +$220 | 58% 14-10 (24) |
 paddaa | Noavg 75.4¢ | $3.0K | $3.3K | +$321.9 | 56% 836-644 (1480) |
WA wan123 | Noavg 49.5¢ | $669.63 | $1.1K | +$460.35 | 39% 196-304 (500) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 78¢ | $986.51 | $1.1K | +$69.12 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 73.4¢ | $938.57 | $1.1K | +$111.47 | 53% 1857-1640 (3497) |
 Car | Noavg 78¢ | $866.58 | $933.24 | +$61.11 | 67% 4164-2026 (6190) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 77.4¢ | $595.69 | $624.13 | +$28.44 | 56% 15371-11922 (27293) |
 allenzzz | Noavg 79¢ | $221.62 | $519 | +$29.36 | 78% 125-36 (161) |
 Mr-Krabs | Noavg 80¢ | $430.54 | $452.07 | +$18.84 | 78% 573-165 (738) |
GL Gladius7 | Noavg 75¢ | $300 | $336 | +$34 | 48% 90-98 (188) |
 4751346 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $267.1 | $297.29 | +$30.19 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $215.7 | $272.61 | +$55.28 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 Gohst | Noavg 26¢ | $72.42 | $233.97 | +$160.16 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 20.2¢ | $335.21 | $170.76 | -$46.37 | 42% 5283-7233 (12516) |
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $48.95 | $35.41 | -$13.54 | 51% 2097-1976 (4073) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $17.53 | $20.61 | +$3.07 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $13.84 | $15.1 | +$1.17 | 50% 697-693 (1390) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $3.26 | $3.53 | +$0.27 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
 aenews2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.2 | $1.32 | +$0.12 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
MisTKyInvested
$5,926.65
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$96.57
Record
71%
568-236 (804)
JSG3Invested
$3,120
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$220
Record
58%
14-10 (24)
paddaaInvested
$3,020.31
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$321.9
Record
56%
836-644 (1480)
Invested
$669.63
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$460.35
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
Invested
$986.51
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$69.12
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
StarMasterInvested
$938.57
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$111.47
Record
53%
1857-1640 (3497)
CarInvested
$866.58
Value
$933.24
PnL
+$61.11
Record
67%
4164-2026 (6190)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$595.69
Value
$624.13
PnL
+$28.44
Record
56%
15371-11922 (27293)
allenzzzInvested
$221.62
Value
$519
PnL
+$29.36
Record
78%
125-36 (161)
Mr-KrabsInvested
$430.54
Value
$452.07
PnL
+$18.84
Record
78%
573-165 (738)
Invested
$300
Value
$336
PnL
+$34
Record
48%
90-98 (188)
4751346Invested
$267.1
Value
$297.29
PnL
+$30.19
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$215.7
Value
$272.61
PnL
+$55.28
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
GohstInvested
$72.42
Value
$233.97
PnL
+$160.16
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
Invested
$335.21
Value
$170.76
PnL
-$46.37
Record
42%
5283-7233 (12516)
Invested
$48.95
Value
$35.41
PnL
-$13.54
Record
51%
2097-1976 (4073)
Invested
$17.53
Value
$20.61
PnL
+$3.07
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$13.84
Value
$15.1
PnL
+$1.17
Record
50%
697-693 (1390)
Parz1vaI<$100Invested
$3.26
Value
$3.53
PnL
+$0.27
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
aenews2CTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.32
PnL
+$0.12
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.