Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

20 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 74¢ · $68K held · ends Nov 4

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$68.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 73.5¢

+19% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 74%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 32 top traders (63%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$51.1K

Total Shares69,950

Combined PnL+$8.2K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$17.1K

Total Shares64,743

Combined PnL$-10.0K

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

44 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 58% · 12

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA Railcool	Noavg 55¢	$11.0K	$14.6K	+$3.7K	51% 86-81 (167)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 43.7¢	$18.5K	$11.2K	$-7.3K	47% 474-534 (1008)
JSG3	Noavg 68.6¢	$8.2K	$8.7K	+$588.87	58% 14-10 (24)
ScottyNooo	Noavg 59.8¢	$3.7K	$4.6K	+$862.65	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 68¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$335.47	61% 203-132 (335)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 67.6¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$339.62	38% 20-32 (52)
SU supersmard	Noavg 58.1¢	$2.5K	$3.1K	+$658.16	39% 46-71 (117)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 50.4¢	$3.4K	$1.7K	$-1.6K	54% 325-279 (604)
randomWalkingShrimp	Noavg 58.9¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$325.34	77% 1204-366 (1570)
LI lissartter	Noavg 70.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.8	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
BiDiFakePolls	Noavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$130	58% 182-132 (314)
GollumGekko	Noavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$370	68% 2074-957 (3031)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$25	36% 190-333 (523)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 66.3¢	$898.28	$930.13	+$31.85	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 59¢	$716.08	$892.22	+$176.02	69% 156-69 (225)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 58¢	$580	$730	+$155	82% 1758-394 (2152)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 68.4¢	$724.99	$729.99	+$5	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 41¢	$1.1K	$711.05	-$389.07	46% 271-319 (590)
DZ dzsibenaja	Noavg 57¢	$471.42	$603.74	+$136.46	88% 171-24 (195)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 31.2¢	$733.45	$593.51	-$103.9	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
BO botbotCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$687.15	$585.77	-$101.38	43% 314-418 (732)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 51.5¢	$370.24	$529.85	+$159.6	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$390	$390	+$7.5	37% 566-944 (1510)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 58.9¢	$854	$387.72	-$466.28	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 54¢	$250.27	$338.33	+$90.38	85% 311-57 (368)

Railcool

Invested

$11,000

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$18,458.17

Value

$11.2K

PnL

$-7.3K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

JSG3

Invested

$8,178.26

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$588.87

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

ScottyNooo

Invested

$3,736.52

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$862.65

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$4,147.54

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$335.47

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$3,920.31

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$339.62

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

supersmard

Invested

$2,464.57

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$658.16

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,395.14

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

randomWalkingShrimp

Invested

$1,352.62

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$325.34

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

lissartter

Invested

$1,459.67

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.8

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

BiDiFakePolls

Invested

$1,339.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$130

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

GollumGekko

Invested

$1,099.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$370

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$25

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$898.28

Value

$930.13

PnL

+$31.85

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$716.08

Value

$892.22

PnL

+$176.02

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$580

Value

$730

PnL

+$155

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$724.99

Value

$729.99

PnL

+$5

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,100.12

Value

$711.05

PnL

-$389.07

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

dzsibenaja

Invested

$471.42

Value

$603.74

PnL

+$136.46

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$733.45

Value

$593.51

PnL

-$103.9

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

botbotCTR

Yes

Invested

$687.15

Value

$585.77

PnL

-$101.38

Record

43%

314-418 (732)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$370.24

Value

$529.85

PnL

+$159.6

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$390

Value

$390

PnL

+$7.5

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$854

Value

$387.72

PnL

-$466.28

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$250.27

Value

$338.33

PnL

+$90.38

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 74%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 32 top traders (63%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

44 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 58% · 12

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.3%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.