Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 87¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
$487.11
70.2¢ → 86.5¢
+23% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO Logan. | Noavg 70.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$326.76 | 41% 648-925 (1573) |
JA jaja5050 | Noavg 65.1¢ | $431.91 | $576.09 | +$144.18 | 63% 182-109 (291) |
 GollumGekko | Noavg 73.2¢ | $540.03 | $571.86 | +$31.83 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
 paddaa | Noavg 64.7¢ | $198.83 | $204.15 | +$5.31 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
CO cowcatARB<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $140.99 | $166.75 | -$11.73 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16¢ | $139.61 | $117.86 | -$21.75 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69¢ | $39.23 | $48.9 | +$10.01 | |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $89.63 | $107.5 | +$17.88 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 84.3¢ | $94.37 | $83.27 | +$0.9 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
ME melganis<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $27.4 | $34.4 | +$7.2 | 75% 1597-541 (2138) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57.8¢ | $69.4 | $16.2 | -$53.2 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
 Gohst<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $1.64 | $7.83 | +$6.24 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
Invested
$1,471.67
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$326.76
Record
41%
648-925 (1573)
Invested
$431.91
Value
$576.09
PnL
+$144.18
Record
63%
182-109 (291)
GollumGekkoInvested
$540.03
Value
$571.86
PnL
+$31.83
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
paddaaInvested
$198.83
Value
$204.15
PnL
+$5.31
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
Invested
$140.99
Value
$166.75
PnL
-$11.73
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.63
Value
$107.5
PnL
+$17.88
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
Invested
$94.37
Value
$83.27
PnL
+$0.9
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$27.4
Value
$34.4
PnL
+$7.2
Record
75%
1597-541 (2138)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100Invested
$69.4
Value
$16.2
PnL
-$53.2
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Gohst<$100Invested
$1.64
Value
$7.83
PnL
+$6.24
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.