Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

29 of 51 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (57%) · MOUZ at 100¢ · $843K held · ends Nov 7

MOUZ>99¢BetBoom Team<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$842.7K

Combined PnL

$-98.0K

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

29 of 51 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ100%

BetBoom Team0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ29 traders

Total Value$727.2K

Total Shares786,014

Combined PnL+$49.8K

BetBoom Team22 traders

Total Value$59.6K

Total Shares817,738

Combined PnL$-147.7K

MOUZ — 57%BetBoom Team — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

29% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBetBoom Team 63% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000BetBoom Team 71% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	MOUZavg 99.9¢	$325.9K	$326.1K	+$164.03	98% 18151-375 (18526)
LL lllllllIlll	MOUZavg 70¢	$69.6K	$89.0K	+$19.4K	54% 319-276 (595)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	MOUZavg 70.6¢	$55.1K	$70.6K	+$15.5K	54% 1379-1190 (2569)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 27¢	$65.5K	$55.1K	$-10.4K	53% 6328-5609 (11937)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 71.6¢	$32.7K	$39.9K	+$7.3K
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 27¢	$32.8K	$15.2K	$-17.6K
KJ kjhgkltivtvriur	MOUZavg 72¢	$50.7K	$49.6K	-$352.04	— 5-2 (7)
vtcchampion52	MOUZavg 87.3¢	$36.2K	$41.3K	+$5.1K	48% 1171-1257 (2428)
NS NS13CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 23¢	$121.9K	$40.9K	$-80.6K	52% 440-406 (846)
WI Wiretransferxyz	MOUZavg 87¢	$34.8K	$35.0K	+$191.32	53% 793-695 (1488)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	MOUZavg 87¢	$26.1K	$30.0K	+$3.9K	50% 1305-1294 (2599)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888	MOUZavg 87¢	$18.8K	$19.2K	+$324.86	57% 697-530 (1227)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MOUZavg 78.5¢	$11.9K	$13.7K	+$1.8K	52% 14647-13309 (27956)
SK skadii	MOUZavg 73¢	$10.5K	$10.1K	-$358.14	48% 508-544 (1052)
LO lonmi2511	MOUZavg 88.8¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$80.12	55% 1424-1175 (2599)
Neimuking	MOUZavg 64.2¢	$8.0K	$8.8K	+$789.74	60% 70-46 (116)
CA calculate10	MOUZavg 80.6¢	$14.7K	$4.5K	+$1.7K	54% 1327-1145 (2472)
LooksMaxing101	MOUZavg 87¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$25	51% 887-848 (1735)
RA Rayaya	MOUZavg 72¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	+$25	61% 1223-797 (2020)
0X 0x387f3602454Bb7dC5FB3938aEfb2D12F70232095-1777148824538CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 27¢	$3.2K	$3.5K	+$292.5	55% 54-44 (98)
RI Richidd	MOUZavg 73.1¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$571.09	48% 59-63 (122)
KateBollingerCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 28.4¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$121.32	68% 1823-862 (2685)
IW iWasEnough	MOUZavg 87.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$6.72	51% 12174-11576 (23750)
forsenxdCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 27¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$193.65	53% 1118-978 (2096)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 27¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$169.26	55% 244-203 (447)
relativesignificanceCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 27.3¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$141.07	57% 154-114 (268)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 24.1¢	$3.0K	$1.8K	$-1.3K	42% 8163-11357 (19520)

pvc975

MOUZ

Invested

$325,924.96

Value

$326.1K

PnL

+$164.03

Record

98%

18151-375 (18526)

lllllllIlll

MOUZ

Invested

$69,632.15

Value

$89.0K

PnL

+$19.4K

Record

54%

319-276 (595)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

MOUZ

Invested

$55,086.48

Value

$70.6K

PnL

+$15.5K

Record

54%

1379-1190 (2569)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$65,479.06

Value

$55.1K

PnL

$-10.4K

Record

53%

6328-5609 (11937)

Both legs:

MOUZ$32,678.1171.6¢+$7.3K

BetBoom Team$32,800.9527¢$-17.6K

kjhgkltivtvriur

MOUZ

Invested

$50,725

Value

$49.6K

PnL

-$352.04

Record

—

5-2 (7)

vtcchampion52

MOUZ

Invested

$36,221.61

Value

$41.3K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

48%

1171-1257 (2428)

NS13CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$121,935.08

Value

$40.9K

PnL

$-80.6K

Record

52%

440-406 (846)

Wiretransferxyz

MOUZ

Invested

$34,808.68

Value

$35.0K

PnL

+$191.32

Record

53%

793-695 (1488)

Gooooooollllllllll

MOUZ

Invested

$26,100

Value

$30.0K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

50%

1305-1294 (2599)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888

MOUZ

Invested

$18,841.65

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$324.86

Record

57%

697-530 (1227)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MOUZ

Invested

$11,942.96

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

52%

14647-13309 (27956)

skadii

MOUZ

Invested

$10,458.1

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$358.14

Record

48%

508-544 (1052)

lonmi2511

MOUZ

Invested

$9,971.28

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$80.12

Record

55%

1424-1175 (2599)

Neimuking

MOUZ

Invested

$8,004.74

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$789.74

Record

60%

70-46 (116)

calculate10

MOUZ

Invested

$14,654.52

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

54%

1327-1145 (2472)

LooksMaxing101

MOUZ

Invested

$4,350

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$25

Record

51%

887-848 (1735)

Rayaya

MOUZ

Invested

$3,599.95

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$25

Record

61%

1223-797 (2020)

0x387f3602454Bb7dC5FB3938aEfb2D12F70232095-1777148824538CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$3,159

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$292.5

Record

55%

54-44 (98)

Richidd

MOUZ

Invested

$2,708.8

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$571.09

Record

48%

59-63 (122)

KateBollingerCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,264.61

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$121.32

Record

68%

1823-862 (2685)

iWasEnough

MOUZ

Invested

$2,365.53

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$6.72

Record

51%

12174-11576 (23750)

forsenxdCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,091.43

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$193.65

Record

53%

1118-978 (2096)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,827.83

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$169.26

Record

55%

244-203 (447)

relativesignificanceCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,768.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$141.07

Record

57%

154-114 (268)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$3,032.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

42%

8163-11357 (19520)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

29 of 51 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

29% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBetBoom Team 63% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000BetBoom Team 71% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.