Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-11-01?

19 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 83¢ · $33K held · ended Nov 1

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 90%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 83.4¢

+11% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 83%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 21 top traders (90%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$25.9K

Total Shares27,751

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares14,825

Combined PnL-$74.11

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 85.1¢	$8.7K	$8.1K	-$655.84	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$45.01	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.5¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$38.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.2¢	$846.53	$852.58	+$6.05
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65.5¢	$2.8K	$3.6K	+$733.31	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 62.2¢	$2.4K	$3.1K	+$701.73	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
OL olpy	Noavg 63.9¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$26.17	73% 416-154 (570)
GR graziek99	Noavg 94¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$13.3	87% 415-61 (476)
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR	Yesavg 38¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$65.78	56% 86-68 (154)
AN Anon455	Noavg 85¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$48.86	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 62¢	$930	$1.4K	+$472.5	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 61¢	$992.06	$1.3K	+$341.26	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$856.27	$897.82	+$41.56	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.6¢	$581.69	$647.19	+$65.5
└ No leg	Noavg 90.5¢	$274.57	$250.63	-$23.94
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 83.5¢	$481.08	$540.14	+$59.05	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 89.4¢	$253.08	$255.22	+$2.13	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$250	$241.67	-$8.33	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
FO foooool	Noavg 84¢	$198.97	$202.64	+$3.66	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
CA Cannae	Noavg 62¢	$87.68	$112.56	+$24.88	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 95¢	$95.42	$93.89	-$1.53	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 62¢	$69.44	$91.84	+$22.4	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$65.98	$63.25	-$2.74	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
SP spyGoodLuck77ARB<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$59.94	$59.78	+$0.44	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.4¢	$36.54	$34.73	-$1.81
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$23.4	$25.05	+$2.25
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$27.72	$26.87	-$0.85	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$9.88	$11.65	+$1.77	58% 18783-13847 (32630)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$9.55	$9.55	-$0	54% 6427-5413 (11840)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 86¢	$5.54	$5.51	-$0.03	50% 19450-19817 (39267)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$8,734.78

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$655.84

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$3,591.46

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$45.01

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Both legs:

No$2,744.9381.5¢+$38.96

Yes$846.5317.2¢+$6.05

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,823.17

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$733.31

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$2,393.07

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$701.73

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

olpy

Invested

$2,965.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$26.17

Record

73%

416-154 (570)

graziek99

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$13.3

Record

87%

415-61 (476)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,434.2

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$65.78

Record

56%

86-68 (154)

Anon455

Invested

$1,596.59

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$48.86

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$930

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$472.5

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$992.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$341.26

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$856.27

Value

$897.82

PnL

+$41.56

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

Both legs:

Yes$581.6915.6¢+$65.5

No$274.5790.5¢-$23.94

Lilybaeum

Invested

$481.08

Value

$540.14

PnL

+$59.05

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$253.08

Value

$255.22

PnL

+$2.13

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$241.67

PnL

-$8.33

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

foooool

Invested

$198.97

Value

$202.64

PnL

+$3.66

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Cannae

Invested

$87.68

Value

$112.56

PnL

+$24.88

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$95.42

Value

$93.89

PnL

-$1.53

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$69.44

Value

$91.84

PnL

+$22.4

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$65.98

Value

$63.25

PnL

-$2.74

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

spyGoodLuck77ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.78

PnL

+$0.44

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

Both legs:

Yes$36.5417.4¢-$1.81

No$23.478¢+$2.25

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$27.72

Value

$26.87

PnL

-$0.85

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$11.65

PnL

+$1.77

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

6427-5413 (11840)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$5.54

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 83%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 21 top traders (90%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.1%

83.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.