Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 222.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 53¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 1

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$146.6

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 52.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares12,612

Combined PnL+$166

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,071

Combined PnL-$19.4

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.4¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$176.72	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$61.21	57% 261-193 (454)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$41.84	49% 1199-1227 (2426)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$773.24	$745.1	-$28.14	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$403.26	$407.14	+$3.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$369.98	$337.96	-$32.02
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$730.16	$730.84	+$0.68	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.8¢	$538	$540.54	+$2.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$192.16	$190.3	-$1.86
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439	Underavg 52¢	$524.68	$514.59	-$10.09	49% 353-369 (722)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.8¢	$605.94	$262.5	+$0.44	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$75.57	$74.78	-$0.79	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 52¢	$29.22	$28.65	-$0.28	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.38	-$0.03	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,834.97

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$176.72

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Over

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$61.21

Record

57%

261-193 (454)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$1,420.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$41.84

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$773.24

Value

$745.1

PnL

-$28.14

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Both legs:

Under$403.2652¢+$3.88

Over$369.9852¢-$32.02

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$730.16

Value

$730.84

PnL

+$0.68

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

Both legs:

Under$53850.8¢+$2.54

Over$192.1649.5¢-$1.86

0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439

Under

Invested

$524.68

Value

$514.59

PnL

-$10.09

Record

49%

353-369 (722)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$605.94

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0.44

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$75.57

Value

$74.78

PnL

-$0.79

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$29.22

Value

$28.65

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.