Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 89¢ · $83K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$82.7K

Combined PnL

$10.2K

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 89.3¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$53.2K

Total Shares59,557

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$29.6K

Total Shares275,297

Combined PnL+$12.0K

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

68 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Noavg 92.3¢	$54.2K	$52.5K	$-1.8K	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 6.6¢	$14.3K	$26.5K	+$10.7K	47% 217-240 (457)
NE neymar1CTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$890.93	30% 324-771 (1095)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$376.74	$637.06	+$260.32	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 91.3¢	$484.62	$473.74	-$10.88	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
IM immanuelcan	No	$198.04	$198.04	-$14.98	53% 906-789 (1695)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$67.08	$145.12	+$78.05	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$4.59	$130.37	+$91.49	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yes	$25.29	$25.29	+$18.16	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 96¢	$23.62	$21.96	-$1.67	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$4.69	$4.46	-$0.22	73% 41-15 (56)

Nooserac

Invested

$54,248.76

Value

$52.5K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$14,268.42

Value

$26.5K

PnL

+$10.7K

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

neymar1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,260

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$890.93

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$376.74

Value

$637.06

PnL

+$260.32

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$484.62

Value

$473.74

PnL

-$10.88

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

immanuelcan

Invested

$198.04

Value

$198.04

PnL

-$14.98

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$67.08

Value

$145.12

PnL

+$78.05

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$4.59

Value

$130.37

PnL

+$91.49

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.29

Value

$25.29

PnL

+$18.16

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$23.62

Value

$21.96

PnL

-$1.67

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.22

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

68 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.7%

89.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.