Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 2?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 92¢ · $391 held · ended Nov 2

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$390.65

Combined PnL

$5.6

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 91.5¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$236.47

Total Shares240

Combined PnL+$17.52

Yes4 traders

Total Value$13.17

Total Shares209

Combined PnL-$11.92

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryARB<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$92.62	$141.01	+$48.39	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19¢	$56.02	$108.93	+$52.88
└ No leg	Noavg 71.8¢	$36.57	$32.09	-$4.48
PO Poligarch	Noavg 72.9¢	$122.69	$126.43	+$3.74	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 74¢	$58.08	$75.32	+$8.21	58% 1615-1157 (2772)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$45.34	$22.11	+$6.29	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 88¢	$6.02	$6.36	+$0.34	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 89¢	$7.31	$6.25	-$1.06	35% 710-1327 (2037)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3	$4.57	-$3.53	50% 2042-2017 (4059)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$10.64	$3.65	-$6.99	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$2.95	$3.03	+$0.08	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$3.4	$1.92	-$1.48	35% 558-1046 (1604)

BilberryARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.62

Value

$141.01

PnL

+$48.39

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

Both legs:

Yes$56.0219¢+$52.88

No$36.5771.8¢-$4.48

Poligarch

Invested

$122.69

Value

$126.43

PnL

+$3.74

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$58.08

Value

$75.32

PnL

+$8.21

Record

58%

1615-1157 (2772)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.34

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$6.29

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$0.34

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.31

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$1.06

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$3.53

Record

50%

2042-2017 (4059)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.64

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$6.99

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.08

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$1.48

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.