Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 7.2¢ · $22K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

$16.4K

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 7.2¢

+306% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$21.5K

Total Shares299,156

Combined PnL+$16.4K

No1 trader

Total Value$4.64

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.27

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.7K	$7.2K	+$5.6K	40% 704-1062 (1766)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$755.1	$5.2K	+$4.4K	47% 217-240 (457)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.2K	$4.0K	+$2.8K	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$708.77	$1.6K	+$926.28	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
studmuffin6969CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$300	$1.4K	+$1.1K	59% 1027-717 (1744)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$272.08	$1.3K	+$1.0K	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$257.22	$627.67	+$374.9	54% 399-345 (744)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$3.76	$93.8	+$56.43	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$26.69	$46.19	+$33.24	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$4.91	$4.64	-$0.27	42% 2258-3075 (5333)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,669.08

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$755.1

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,231.14

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$708.77

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$926.28

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

studmuffin6969CTR

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$272.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Yes

Invested

$257.22

Value

$627.67

PnL

+$374.9

Record

54%

399-345 (744)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.76

Value

$93.8

PnL

+$56.43

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.69

Value

$46.19

PnL

+$33.24

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$0.27

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.6%

7.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1058.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

1159.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.