Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-11-01?

21 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 97¢ · $83K held · ended Nov 1

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$83.4K

Combined PnL

$-8.3K

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 97.3¢

+35% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 30 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No21 traders

Total Value$75.2K

Total Shares96,253

Combined PnL-$991.3

Yes9 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares28,348

Combined PnL$-7.3K

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH SharkVision	Noavg 85.8¢	$39.4K	$42.0K	+$2.7K	71% 1381-572 (1953)
RN1	Noavg 38.1¢	$5.4K	$10.7K	+$5.3K	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
MI MinevaJ	Noavg 83.7¢	$16.8K	$9.1K	$-4.8K	57% 1048-784 (1832)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 84.9¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$39.47	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
PA pauleta23	Noavg 81.3¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$41.48	67% 23462-11817 (35279)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$60.3	51% 1526-1478 (3004)
PL pltrkr111	Noavg 59¢	$5.0K	$2.2K	$-2.8K	54% 732-617 (1349)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 51.9¢	$2.9K	$1.9K	$-1.1K	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 59¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$34.6	49% 167-174 (341)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 40.8¢	$787.39	$1.4K	+$564.5	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Noavg 62¢	$951.3	$838.47	-$112.83	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 58.8¢	$1.9K	$818.95	$-1.0K	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 51.7¢	$677.14	$724.26	+$47.12	52% 13925-12698 (26623)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Yesavg 42¢	$340	$590.95	-$4.05	61% 129-81 (210)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 73.8¢	$1.1K	$578.57	-$520.6	55% 3007-2438 (5445)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.9¢	$346.06	$348.83	+$2.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73.8¢	$753.11	$229.74	-$523.37
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 40.4¢	$7.3K	$452.76	$-6.9K	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$185.74	$296.98	+$111.23	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.9¢	$140.57	$234.53	+$93.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68¢	$180.69	$62.44	+$17.27
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$400.99	$215.83	+$255.3	53% 454-406 (860)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42¢	$324.54	$142.95	+$258.86
└ No leg	Noavg 85.5¢	$76.44	$72.88	-$3.57
RO Rocko33	Noavg 86¢	$200	$191.86	-$8.14	63% 1197-693 (1890)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 78.7¢	$229.65	$177.36	-$52.29	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 72¢	$173.97	$171.56	-$2.4	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 60.5¢	$129.82	$161.95	+$32.13	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 21.9¢	$140.02	$118.19	-$21.83	48% 1064-1163 (2227)
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816CTR	Yesavg 72¢	$100	$102.78	+$2.78	70% 337-144 (481)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$240.78	$97.06	-$143.71	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.9¢	$222.95	$54.22	-$168.73
└ No leg	Noavg 40.4¢	$17.83	$42.84	+$25.01

SharkVision

Invested

$39,364.16

Value

$42.0K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

71%

1381-572 (1953)

RN1

Invested

$5,399.08

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

MinevaJ

Invested

$16,805.29

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$3,156.3

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$39.47

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

pauleta23

Invested

$2,869.9

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$41.48

Record

67%

23462-11817 (35279)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,167.1

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$60.3

Record

51%

1526-1478 (3004)

pltrkr111

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

54%

732-617 (1349)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,921.43

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$1,834.24

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$34.6

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$787.39

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$564.5

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

JAMJAMJAM4

Invested

$951.3

Value

$838.47

PnL

-$112.83

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,879.82

Value

$818.95

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$677.14

Value

$724.26

PnL

+$47.12

Record

52%

13925-12698 (26623)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Yes

Invested

$340

Value

$590.95

PnL

-$4.05

Record

61%

129-81 (210)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,099.16

Value

$578.57

PnL

-$520.6

Record

55%

3007-2438 (5445)

Both legs:

No$346.0676.9¢+$2.77

Yes$753.1173.8¢-$523.37

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,312.37

Value

$452.76

PnL

$-6.9K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$185.74

Value

$296.98

PnL

+$111.23

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

Both legs:

No$140.5745.9¢+$93.96

Yes$180.6968¢+$17.27

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$400.99

Value

$215.83

PnL

+$255.3

Record

53%

454-406 (860)

Both legs:

Yes$324.5442¢+$258.86

No$76.4485.5¢-$3.57

Rocko33

Invested

$200

Value

$191.86

PnL

-$8.14

Record

63%

1197-693 (1890)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$229.65

Value

$177.36

PnL

-$52.29

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$173.97

Value

$171.56

PnL

-$2.4

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

SnakeBall

Invested

$129.82

Value

$161.95

PnL

+$32.13

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.02

Value

$118.19

PnL

-$21.83

Record

48%

1064-1163 (2227)

0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816CTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$102.78

PnL

+$2.78

Record

70%

337-144 (481)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$240.78

Value

$97.06

PnL

-$143.71

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Both legs:

Yes$222.9511.9¢-$168.73

No$17.8340.4¢+$25.01

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 30 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.