Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

30.9¢ → 53¢

+72% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,125

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,447

Combined PnL+$8.91

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

516h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Yesavg 29.3¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	+$828.5	45% 112-138 (250)
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 33.1¢	$545.37	$902.55	+$329.96	75% 540-176 (716)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 47.2¢	$429.57	$509.79	+$80.23	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 63.9¢	$212.27	$277.41	+$65.14	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 63.5¢	$253.99	$218.79	-$40.8	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
viniiCTR	Noavg 71.4¢	$345.36	$218	-$127.36	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
2B9S	Yesavg 11.3¢	$35.64	$149.55	+$113.91	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Yesavg 2.4¢	$4.56	$103.93	+$96.14	54% 229-195 (424)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$96.44	$95.35	-$0.89	65% 527-282 (809)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$56.53	$48.28	-$8.2	42% 5284-7234 (12518)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

Yes

Invested

$1,125.07

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$828.5

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$545.37

Value

$902.55

PnL

+$329.96

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$429.57

Value

$509.79

PnL

+$80.23

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$212.27

Value

$277.41

PnL

+$65.14

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$253.99

Value

$218.79

PnL

-$40.8

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

viniiCTR

Invested

$345.36

Value

$218

PnL

-$127.36

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

2B9S

Yes

Invested

$35.64

Value

$149.55

PnL

+$113.91

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

Dimpled-Foal

Yes

Invested

$4.56

Value

$103.93

PnL

+$96.14

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Invested

$96.44

Value

$95.35

PnL

-$0.89

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$56.53

Value

$48.28

PnL

-$8.2

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

516h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.0%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.