Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 24¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 24¢

-51% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares7,481

Combined PnL$-1.9K

No5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,356

Combined PnL+$345.56

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 57.5¢	$2.4K	$948.43	$-1.2K	56% 973-769 (1742)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$633.73	$403.26	-$230.48	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$398.16	$334.43	-$83.17	62% 4201-2575 (6776)
paddaa	Noavg 75¢	$307.03	$302.76	+$7.19	56% 836-644 (1480)
SI singularityman	Noavg 31.5¢	$123.09	$289.34	+$166.25	42% 138-193 (331)
LE leegunner	Noavg 44.9¢	$154.79	$254.83	+$106.93	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
TH TheImpasse	Noavg 44¢	$92.84	$156.14	+$63.3	22% 145-528 (673)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 59.8¢	$300.28	$127.59	-$172.69	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
archaicCTR	Yesavg 57¢	$189.81	$83.25	-$113.22	85% 1906-339 (2245)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.9¢	$48.71	$33.95	-$14.76	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$12.26	$7.19	+$1.89	76% 11352-3524 (14876)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,370.98

Value

$948.43

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$633.73

Value

$403.26

PnL

-$230.48

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

SunlineTickerCTR

Yes

Invested

$398.16

Value

$334.43

PnL

-$83.17

Record

62%

4201-2575 (6776)

paddaa

Invested

$307.03

Value

$302.76

PnL

+$7.19

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

singularityman

Invested

$123.09

Value

$289.34

PnL

+$166.25

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

leegunner

Invested

$154.79

Value

$254.83

PnL

+$106.93

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

TheImpasse

Invested

$92.84

Value

$156.14

PnL

+$63.3

Record

22%

145-528 (673)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$300.28

Value

$127.59

PnL

-$172.69

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

archaicCTR

Yes

Invested

$189.81

Value

$83.25

PnL

-$113.22

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.71

Value

$33.95

PnL

-$14.76

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$12.26

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$1.89

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.8%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$288.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

388.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.