Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 6.6¢ · $9K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$4.3K

Smart Money Entry

3.2¢ → 6.6¢

+105% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares127,048

Combined PnL+$4.3K

No3 traders

Total Value$494.91

Total Shares530

Combined PnL-$9.75

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

105 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$2.2K	$4.8K	+$2.7K	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$556.21	$1.4K	+$857.71	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 4.4¢	$917.38	$1.4K	+$445.59	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
solwizzo-onX	Noavg 95.1¢	$475.5	$467.25	-$8.25	67% 347-174 (521)
NE neymar1CTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$116	$262	+$146	30% 324-771 (1095)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$74.23	$235.81	+$115.3	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$10.73	$105.35	+$51.81	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$44.13	$86.92	+$42.79	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yes	$35.06	$35.06	+$18.84	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$24.31	$22.99	-$1.32	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.85	$4.67	-$0.18	73% 41-15 (56)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,160.87

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$556.21

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$857.71

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$917.38

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$445.59

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

solwizzo-onX

Invested

$475.5

Value

$467.25

PnL

-$8.25

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

neymar1CTR

Yes

Invested

$116

Value

$262

PnL

+$146

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$74.23

Value

$235.81

PnL

+$115.3

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$10.73

Value

$105.35

PnL

+$51.81

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.13

Value

$86.92

PnL

+$42.79

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.06

Value

$35.06

PnL

+$18.84

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.31

Value

$22.99

PnL

-$1.32

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$0.18

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

105 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.9%

6.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1165.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

1266.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.