Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 3.6¢ · $6K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$126.03

Smart Money Entry

3.8¢ → 3.6¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares152,714

Combined PnL-$125.65

No2 traders

Total Value$28.52

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.38

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

47 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	-$253.06	47% 217-240 (457)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$74.93	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$834.33	$903.33	+$69	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$738.48	$684.96	-$53.52	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$30	$107.51	+$18.39	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.24	$66.71	+$11.27	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yes	$40	$23.84	+$4.86	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 98¢	$24.1	$23.7	-$0.39	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$16.57	$19.92	+$3.35	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$19	$18.25	-$0.75	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$4.81	$4.82	+$0.01	73% 41-15 (56)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.05	$0.91	-$0.14	42% 2258-3075 (5333)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,215.34

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$253.06

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,318.37

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$74.93

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$834.33

Value

$903.33

PnL

+$69

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$738.48

Value

$684.96

PnL

-$53.52

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$107.51

PnL

+$18.39

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$66.71

PnL

+$11.27

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$23.84

PnL

+$4.86

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.1

Value

$23.7

PnL

-$0.39

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.57

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$3.35

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$18.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0.01

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.14

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

47 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.9%

3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1952.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

2052.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.