Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 56¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 4

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$469.37

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 55.5¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares17,796

Combined PnL-$556.18

No6 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares15,405

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

131h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigMackyG	Yesavg 58.2¢	$6.9K	$6.6K	-$314.76	20% 108-423 (531)
AN anoin123	Yesavg 59.7¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$226.84	47% 474-534 (1008)
aenews2CTR	Noavg 39.9¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$293.64	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
cookiejarCTR	Noavg 23.4¢	$701.6	$1.3K	+$632.63	69% 178-80 (258)
ChungvicularCTR	Noavg 43.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$25.13	46% 49-57 (106)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Noavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$53.71	79% 332-89 (421)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100	Yesavg 59.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$15.93	40% 174-265 (439)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.8¢	$634.68	$588.58	-$41.66
└ No leg	Noavg 42.1¢	$445.08	$470.81	+$25.73
StarMaster	Yesavg 67.9¢	$292.2	$277.5	-$14.7	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Noavg 39.3¢	$144.59	$163.9	+$19.31	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Yesavg 58.8¢	$99.04	$97.57	-$1.47	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.8¢	$57.38	$54.15	-$1.6
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$42.89	$43.42	+$0.13
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$10	$11.13	+$1.13	50% 7969-8009 (15978)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$4.32	$4.44	+$0.12	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

BigMackyG

Yes

Invested

$6,887.1

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$314.76

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$3,249.37

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$226.84

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

aenews2CTR

Invested

$2,539.26

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$293.64

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

cookiejarCTR

Invested

$701.6

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$632.63

Record

69%

178-80 (258)

ChungvicularCTR

Invested

$1,298.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25.13

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Invested

$1,149.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$53.71

Record

79%

332-89 (421)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,091.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$15.93

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Both legs:

Yes$634.6859.8¢-$41.66

No$445.0842.1¢+$25.73

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$292.2

Value

$277.5

PnL

-$14.7

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Invested

$144.59

Value

$163.9

PnL

+$19.31

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.04

Value

$97.57

PnL

-$1.47

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

Both legs:

Yes$57.3858.8¢-$1.6

No$42.8944¢+$0.13

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$11.13

PnL

+$1.13

Record

50%

7969-8009 (15978)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

131h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.5%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.