Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 45¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 4

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

35¢ → 44.5¢

+27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares37,104

Combined PnL+$3.5K

No3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,271

Combined PnL-$383.94

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

615h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$9.1K	$10.7K	+$1.5K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
cookiejarCTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$2.0K	$3.7K	+$1.7K	69% 178-80 (258)
BigMackyG	Noavg 61.5¢	$3.8K	$3.5K	-$375.26	20% 108-423 (531)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$220.1	46% 49-57 (106)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$175	$222.5	+$47.5	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 40.3¢	$108.21	$126.72	+$18.51	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.7¢	$35.92	$39.28	+$3.36	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 88¢	$22	$13.88	-$8.13	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$6.72	$6.17	-$0.55	40% 174-265 (439)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,148.06

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

cookiejarCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,955.47

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

69%

178-80 (258)

BigMackyG

Invested

$3,835.49

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$375.26

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,568.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$220.1

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$175

Value

$222.5

PnL

+$47.5

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$108.21

Value

$126.72

PnL

+$18.51

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.92

Value

$39.28

PnL

+$3.36

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$8.13

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$0.55

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

615h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.5%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$115.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

215.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.