Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 73¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 29

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 73.4¢

+18% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares17,211

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares16,272

Combined PnL+$104.48

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

948h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GollumGekko	Noavg 60.4¢	$5.8K	$6.6K	+$780.72	68% 2074-957 (3031)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 31.2¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$24.14	56% 836-644 (1480)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 60¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	+$418.08	82% 1758-394 (2152)
Car	Noavg 64.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$88.2	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 29.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$56.34	59% 3428-2336 (5764)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 34.8¢	$748.56	$656.28	-$62.15	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 74.8¢	$628.05	$552.13	-$47.81	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 69.1¢	$29.8K	$546.75	+$443.62	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$364.48	$390.23	+$25.75	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 64.8¢	$386.5	$346	-$40.5	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
bigshort	Noavg 70.1¢	$136.01	$138.4	+$2.4	83% 357-71 (428)
PMTraderAdam	Noavg 70.3¢	$142.83	$138.4	-$4.43	77% 830-249 (1079)
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$9.65	$121.41	+$111.76	18% 3832-17370 (21202)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.6¢	$35.99	$34.13	-$1.85	50% 356-357 (713)
TH TheFOMCGambler<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$20.6	$22.55	+$1.97	76% 102-32 (134)
GonTanakaCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$5.33	$3.97	-$1.23	57% 173-128 (301)

GollumGekko

Invested

$5,781.58

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$780.72

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,594.4

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$24.14

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$2,391.19

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$418.08

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

Car

Invested

$1,155.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$88.2

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,181.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$56.34

Record

59%

3428-2336 (5764)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$748.56

Value

$656.28

PnL

-$62.15

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$628.05

Value

$552.13

PnL

-$47.81

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$29,823.5

Value

$546.75

PnL

+$443.62

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$364.48

Value

$390.23

PnL

+$25.75

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$386.5

Value

$346

PnL

-$40.5

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

bigshort

Invested

$136.01

Value

$138.4

PnL

+$2.4

Record

83%

357-71 (428)

PMTraderAdam

Invested

$142.83

Value

$138.4

PnL

-$4.43

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$9.65

Value

$121.41

PnL

+$111.76

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.99

Value

$34.13

PnL

-$1.85

Record

50%

356-357 (713)

TheFOMCGambler<$100

Invested

$20.6

Value

$22.55

PnL

+$1.97

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

GonTanakaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.33

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$1.23

Record

57%

173-128 (301)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

948h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.2%

73.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.