Iran nuclear test before 2027?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 95¢ · $22K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

$587.91

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 95.5¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares22,176

Combined PnL+$759.26

Yes3 traders

Total Value$361.24

Total Shares7,939

Combined PnL-$171.35

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Talophex	Noavg 93.4¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$59.19	91% 929-95 (1024)
bigshort	Noavg 93.6¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$79.95	83% 357-71 (428)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 85.4¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$360.46	88% 212-28 (240)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 89.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$122.89	88% 2229-292 (2521)
KR Krass	Noavg 87.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$122.76	74% 452-155 (607)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 90.7¢	$242.91	$248.19	+$5.27	59% 986-684 (1670)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 95.3¢	$245.71	$246.1	+$0.39	77% 632-185 (817)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$224.49	$145.92	-$78.57	56% 973-770 (1743)
AO aosdijfCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$125	$113.75	-$11.25	9% 48-465 (513)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$186.04	$101.58	-$81.53	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$72	$77.66	+$5.65	72% 1535-585 (2120)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$54.9	$57.27	+$2.37	61% 839-544 (1383)
JE Jest55<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.77	+$0.32	75% 1028-338 (1366)

Talophex

Invested

$9,597.94

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$59.19

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

bigshort

Invested

$3,968.96

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$79.95

Record

83%

357-71 (428)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$3,050.71

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$360.46

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$1,861.55

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$122.89

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

Krass

Invested

$1,308.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$122.76

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$242.91

Value

$248.19

PnL

+$5.27

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

alwaysOn

Invested

$245.71

Value

$246.1

PnL

+$0.39

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$224.49

Value

$145.92

PnL

-$78.57

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

aosdijfCTR

Yes

Invested

$125

Value

$113.75

PnL

-$11.25

Record

48-465 (513)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$186.04

Value

$101.58

PnL

-$81.53

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$72

Value

$77.66

PnL

+$5.65

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$54.9

Value

$57.27

PnL

+$2.37

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Jest55<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.32

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.5%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.