Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 94¢ · $65K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 62%
$64.6K
$1.3K
90.6¢ → 94¢
+4% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
705h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thoodr | Noavg 90.8¢ | $53.9K | $55.8K | +$1.9K | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 MEPP | Noavg 91¢ | $4.1K | $4.2K | +$134.7 | 64% 633-352 (985) |
 bigshort | Noavg 86.9¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$126.07 | 83% 357-71 (428) |
57 57284910 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$82.5 | 100% 23-0 (23) |
 GollumGekkoCTR | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $1.2K | $650.24 | -$569.85 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
JE Jest55CTR | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $593.99 | $240 | -$319.99 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 88¢ | $127.01 | $135.67 | +$8.66 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
AV aviato<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $78.38 | $84.68 | +$6.31 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $138.93 | $78.5 | -$60.43 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Noavg 87.7¢ | $52.6 | $56.4 | +$3.8 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $47.21 | $48.94 | +$1.73 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 theta-thunbergCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $26.3 | $14.34 | -$11.95 | 56% 429-337 (766) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.2 | $0.6 | -$0.6 | 50% 970-988 (1958) |
Invested
$53,892.94
Value
$55.8K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
MEPPInvested
$4,085.89
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$134.7
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
bigshortInvested
$1,753.93
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$126.07
Record
83%
357-71 (428)
Invested
$1,327.5
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$82.5
Record
100%
23-0 (23)
GollumGekkoCTRInvested
$1,220.09
Value
$650.24
PnL
-$569.85
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
Invested
$593.99
Value
$240
PnL
-$319.99
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
Tenebrus7Invested
$127.01
Value
$135.67
PnL
+$8.66
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Invested
$78.38
Value
$84.68
PnL
+$6.31
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
CarCTRInvested
$138.93
Value
$78.5
PnL
-$60.43
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$52.6
Value
$56.4
PnL
+$3.8
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
Invested
$47.21
Value
$48.94
PnL
+$1.73
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
theta-thunbergCTR<$100Invested
$26.3
Value
$14.34
PnL
-$11.95
Record
56%
429-337 (766)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
970-988 (1958)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.