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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023BreakTheBankjoseph00677
Record (consensus markets)no settled market44% (365–469, n=834)45% (546–663, n=1209)53% (10–9, n=19)
Consensus PnL—$90K$11.2M$5.6M
Tracked as—PM monthly #503PM monthly #2PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position73% (142 of 195 open)68% (39 of 57 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—Entertainment −4 pts, n=76——
Settled positions, side won—62% of 1769 at avg 61¢, ROI +8%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢—37% (won 2% of 650)10% (won 81% of 57)12% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢—2% (won 46% of 41)36% (won 98% of 201)6% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢—3% (won 79% of 58)35% (won 99% of 196)65% (won 73% of 11)
Entries 70¢ and up—58% (won 99% of 1020)19% (won 100% of 109)18% (won 67% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo000x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023BreakTheBankjoseph00677
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $12Yes $11K—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $1.2KNo $235K—
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $62No $795—