Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankzerone777
Record (consensus markets)no settled market57% (4516–3391, n=7907)45% (573–710, n=1283)40% (454–688, n=1142)
Consensus PnL—$7.8M$9.4M$36K
Tracked as—PM monthly #69PM monthly #3PM monthly #102
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position70% (14 of 20 open)85% (29 of 34 open)70% (7 of 10 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—NHL −1 pts, n=134—Elections ±0 pts, n=212
Settled positions, side won—59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%43% of 609 at avg 44¢, ROI +15%
Entries under 30¢—17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)50% (won 2% of 307)
Entries 30–50¢—24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)5% (won 29% of 31)
Entries 50–70¢—29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)7% (won 64% of 45)
Entries 70¢ and up—30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)37% (won 96% of 226)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo000x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankzerone777
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $1.4KYes $74K—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $56No $87K—
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
—No $4.5KNo $1.0K—