Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ndb1whig
Record (consensus markets)no settled market58% (4536–3318, n=7854)63% (991–574, n=1565)62% (415–251, n=666)
Consensus PnL—$7.8M$3.2M$349K
Tracked as—PM monthly #19PM monthly #92was PM monthly #927
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position64% (14 of 22 open)70% (52 of 74 open)65% (36 of 55 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NBA +9 pts n=459, ROI +5%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2301, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1407, ROI +4%
Weakest topic—NHL −1 pts, n=136NFL −9 pts, n=139Finance −7 pts, n=26
Settled positions, side won—59% of 7119 at avg 55¢, ROI +1%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%47% of 632 at avg 40¢, ROI +6%
Entries under 30¢—17% (won 11% of 1182)13% (won 15% of 168)45% (won 13% of 283)
Entries 30–50¢—24% (won 45% of 1743)20% (won 39% of 256)18% (won 43% of 111)
Entries 50–70¢—29% (won 66% of 2080)24% (won 58% of 314)13% (won 81% of 80)
Entries 70¢ and up—30% (won 91% of 2114)43% (won 93% of 550)25% (won 95% of 158)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo000x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ndb1whig
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $45—Yes $9.7K
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $1.5K—Yes $324