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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | MartyMcFox | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 58% (4542–3331, n=7873) | 45% (576–717, n=1293) | 63% (4389–2618, n=7007) | 63% (993–578, n=1571) |
| Consensus PnL | $7.7M | $7.3M | $148K | $4.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #10 | PM monthly #3 | was PM monthly #992 | PM monthly #98 |
| Sides with the consensus | 54% (20 of 37 open) | 77% (27 of 35 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (56 of 77 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NHL −1 pts, n=136 | — | — | NFL −9 pts, n=144 |
| Settled positions, side won | 59% of 7133 at avg 55¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 586 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 87% of 3864 at avg 65¢, ROI +16% | 64% of 1398 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 17% (won 11% of 1182) | 10% (won 82% of 60) | 12% (won 52% of 448) | 13% (won 15% of 186) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 24% (won 45% of 1746) | 35% (won 98% of 206) | 14% (won 76% of 543) | 19% (won 39% of 267) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 66% of 2085) | 35% (won 100% of 204) | 20% (won 89% of 763) | 23% (won 58% of 326) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 30% (won 91% of 2120) | 20% (won 100% of 116) | 55% (won 96% of 2110) | 44% (won 94% of 619) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | MartyMcFox | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $40K | — | No $3.4M |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $1.5K | Yes $23K | — | — |
| Spread: Raptors (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Raptors | Bucks $265 | Raptors $769 | — | — |
| Spread: Raptors (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Bucks | Bucks $11 | Raptors $214 | — | — |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus No | — | No $409K | — | No $337K |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus Yes | No $31 | No $30K | — | — |
| Spread: Mavericks (-7.5) same side · consensus Jazz | Jazz $14K | Jazz $14 | — | — |
| Spread: Thunder (-4.5) same side · consensus Grizzlies | Grizzlies $12K | Grizzlies $50 | — | — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus No | No $4.4K | No $2.4K | — | — |