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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465RegardedMoneyRN1
Record (consensus markets)57% (4474–3357, n=7831)no settled market47% (13371–14881, n=28252)
Consensus PnL$8.9M—$14.8M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #344Hand-pickedPM monthly #29 + pinned
Sides with the consensus73% (11 of 15 open)no open consensus position60% (107 of 177 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134MLB −1 pts, n=37—
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%61% of 1441 at avg 57¢, ROI +2%94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)9% (won 16% of 131)10% (won 57% of 2538)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)28% (won 48% of 407)22% (won 94% of 5565)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 63% of 502)36% (won 99% of 9017)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)28% (won 85% of 401)33% (won 100% of 8250)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465RegardedMoneyRN1
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac
same side · consensus Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils $2.4K—Arthur Fils $11K
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $6.7K—Raptors $246
Pacers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $248—Under $371
76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $194—Over $84