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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616BreakTheBankjoseph00677ndb1
Record (consensus markets)43% (2608–3496, n=6104)45% (553–663, n=1216)53% (10–9, n=19)65% (885–467, n=1352)
Consensus PnL$92K$11.2M$5.6M$4.2M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #522PM monthly #2PM monthly #1PM monthly #21
Sides with the consensus38% (11 of 29 open)55% (21 of 38 open)no open consensus position82% (28 of 34 open)
Strongest topics
  • Weather +2 pts n=147, ROI +2%
  • NBA +8 pts n=16, ROI +8%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topicMentions ±0 pts, n=925——NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won37% of 3253 at avg 37¢, ROI −3%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢54% (won 3% of 1749)10% (won 81% of 57)12% (won 0% of 2)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢14% (won 43% of 463)36% (won 98% of 201)6% (won 0% of 1)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢4% (won 61% of 140)35% (won 99% of 196)65% (won 73% of 11)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up28% (won 97% of 901)19% (won 100% of 109)18% (won 67% of 3)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616BreakTheBankjoseph00677ndb1
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $5.1KNo $17K——
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $923Yes $17K——