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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241BreakTheBankjoseph00677mildwindow27
Record (consensus markets)no settled market45% (546–663, n=1209)53% (10–9, n=19)40% (4836–7382, n=12218)
Consensus PnL—$11.2M$5.6M$62K
Tracked as—PM monthly #2PM monthly #1PM monthly #382
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position67% (34 of 51 open)no open consensus position82% (167 of 204 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic———Weather −3 pts, n=970
Settled positions, side won—97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%42% of 4506 at avg 44¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 81% of 57)12% (won 0% of 2)54% (won 1% of 2428)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 98% of 201)6% (won 0% of 1)3% (won 41% of 116)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 99% of 196)65% (won 73% of 11)4% (won 56% of 202)
Entries 70¢ and up—19% (won 100% of 109)18% (won 67% of 3)39% (won 96% of 1760)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241BreakTheBankjoseph00677mildwindow27
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $9.5K—No $714
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $311—No $434
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $197—No $194
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $42K—No $344
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $11K—No $316
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $6.8K—No $225
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.4K—No $314
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $2—No $7