Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)40% (1291–1924, n=3215)45% (573–710, n=1283)
Consensus PnL-$21K$7.9M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #920PM monthly #3
Sides with the consensus30% (6 of 20 open)82% (23 of 28 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicMentions −1 pts, n=17—
Settled positions, side won26% of 1255 at avg 22¢, ROI 0%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%
Entries under 30¢71% (won 7% of 891)11% (won 80% of 61)
Entries 30–50¢12% (won 60% of 149)35% (won 98% of 203)
Entries 50–70¢12% (won 75% of 147)35% (won 100% of 201)
Entries 70¢ and up5% (won 85% of 68)20% (won 100% of 115)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7BreakTheBank
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus No
Yes $1Yes $8