Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8BreakTheBankjoseph00677RN1
Record (consensus markets)43% (87–116, n=203)45% (573–710, n=1283)45% (10–12, n=22)47% (14055–15545, n=29600)
Consensus PnL$28K$7.9M$5.3M$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #862PM monthly #3PM monthly #2PM monthly #29 + pinned
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position76% (26 of 34 open)no open consensus position59% (19 of 32 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicEsports −13 pts, n=43———
Settled positions, side won43% of 181 at avg 45¢, ROI +6%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢25% (won 11% of 46)11% (won 80% of 61)12% (won 0% of 2)10% (won 57% of 2538)
Entries 30–50¢33% (won 32% of 59)35% (won 98% of 203)6% (won 0% of 1)22% (won 94% of 5565)
Entries 50–70¢26% (won 62% of 47)35% (won 100% of 201)65% (won 73% of 11)36% (won 99% of 9017)
Entries 70¢ and up16% (won 83% of 29)20% (won 100% of 115)18% (won 67% of 3)33% (won 100% of 8250)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.