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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 38791873984189 | beachboy4 | surfandturf | joseph00677 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (5778–6961, n=12739) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 50% (10–10, n=20) |
| Consensus PnL | $26K | $5.8M | $4.1M | $5.3M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #943 | was PM monthly #24 | was PM monthly #326 | PM monthly #2 |
| Sides with the consensus | 61% (147 of 242 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −1 pts, n=391 | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 1801 at avg 45¢, ROI +1% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 7% of 326) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 12% (won 0% of 2) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 64% (won 48% of 1149) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 6% (won 0% of 1) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 162) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 65% (won 73% of 11) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 9% (won 90% of 164) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 18% (won 67% of 3) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 38791873984189 | beachboy4 | surfandturf | joseph00677 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $12 | Yes $4.1K | — | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $239 | Yes $66 | — | — |