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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 38791873984189 | surfandturf | pleaseplease123 | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (5778–6961, n=12739) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 49% (346–353, n=699) | 61% (495–320, n=815) |
| Consensus PnL | $26K | $4.1M | $3.2M | $4.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #943 | was PM monthly #326 | was PM monthly #92 | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 61% (149 of 243 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | no open consensus position | 50% (5 of 10 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | Soccer −1 pts, n=391 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | MLB −1 pts, n=694 | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 1801 at avg 45¢, ROI +1% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 49% of 694 at avg 51¢, ROI −1% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 7% of 326) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 0% (won 0% of 2) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 64% (won 48% of 1149) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 38% (won 43% of 266) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 162) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 61% (won 54% of 426) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 9% (won 90% of 164) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 0% | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 38791873984189 | surfandturf | pleaseplease123 | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wizards vs. Magic opposite sides · consensus Magic | Wizards $333 | — | — | Magic $15K |
| Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | No $2.7K | — | Yes $6.4K |
| Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Bears | Bears $155 | — | — | Seahawks $4.1K |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Francisco Cerundolo opposite sides · consensus Francisco Cerundolo | Francisco Cerundolo $620 | — | — | Arthur Rinderknech $561 |
| Spread: Seahawks (-13.5) same side · consensus Bears | Seahawks $184 | — | — | Seahawks $3.1K |