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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | denizz | smoltrader | Wiretransferxyz | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 97% (441–15, n=456) | 70% (172–74, n=246) | no settled market | 59% (296–204, n=500) |
| Consensus PnL | $8.4M | $2.3M | — | $899K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #151 | was PM monthly #368 | PM monthly #227 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (35 of 46 open) | 90% (26 of 29 open) | 100% (15 of 15 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| not computed yet |
| |
| Weakest topic | — | Politics −2 pts, n=16 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 95% of 332 at avg 52¢, ROI +39% | 64% of 245 at avg 59¢, ROI +7% | — | 59% of 495 at avg 53¢, ROI +8% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 69% of 36) | 26% (won 6% of 63) | — | 6% (won 17% of 29) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 97% of 116) | 12% (won 57% of 30) | — | 35% (won 46% of 171) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 37% (won 99% of 124) | 13% (won 66% of 32) | — | 47% (won 66% of 233) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 17% (won 100% of 56) | 49% (won 96% of 120) | — | 13% (won 89% of 62) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.