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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
GaditimaBreakTheBankRN1
Record (consensus markets)46% (3570–4153, n=7723)45% (542–652, n=1194)47% (13871–15347, n=29218)
Consensus PnL-$384K$11.0M$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #498PM monthly #1PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus59% (23 of 39 open)91% (150 of 165 open)56% (27 of 48 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicEsports −2 pts, n=1335——
Settled positions, side won46% of 6510 at avg 46¢, ROI −1%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢35% (won 7% of 2259)10% (won 82% of 56)10% (won 57% of 2537)
Entries 30–50¢17% (won 36% of 1122)36% (won 98% of 198)22% (won 94% of 5518)
Entries 50–70¢21% (won 62% of 1380)35% (won 99% of 191)36% (won 99% of 8928)
Entries 70¢ and up27% (won 89% of 1749)19% (won 100% of 107)32% (won 100% of 7821)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketGaditimaBreakTheBankRN1
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $3.6KYes $6.8K—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $238No $114K—
Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
same side · consensus Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud $249—Casper Ruud $34K