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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Gucky-45 | joseph00677 | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 32% (749–1577, n=2326) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 66% (875–457, n=1332) | 47% (14178–15785, n=29963) |
| Consensus PnL | $166K | $5.6M | $4.1M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #364 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #22 | PM monthly #18 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 90% (221 of 246 open) | no open consensus position | 72% (91 of 127 open) | 52% (17 of 33 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | NFL −4 pts, n=52 | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 3% of 1918 at avg 3¢, ROI 0% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 98% (won 2% of 1883) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 1% (won 29% of 21) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 20% (won 39% of 252) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 70% of 10) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 24% (won 57% of 306) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 0% (won 75% of 4) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 43% (won 93% of 540) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Gucky-45 | joseph00677 | ndb1 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | Yes $153 | — | Yes $3 | — |