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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Hourglass | CORGII | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 81% (7716–1806, n=9522) | 62% (393–245, n=638) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $136K | $4.5M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #957 | PM monthly #68 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (74 of 97 open) | 25% (1 of 4 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (72 of 99 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Golf −1 pts, n=66 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 11836 at avg 86¢, ROI 0% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 5% of 939) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 37% of 353) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 63% of 524) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 85% (won 97% of 10020) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Hourglass | CORGII | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $13 | — | — | Yes $21K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $49 | — | — | Yes $169K |