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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Hourglass | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 81% (8008–1914, n=9922) | 47% (13858–15341, n=29199) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $136K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #957 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 58% (61 of 105 open) | 67% (2 of 3 open) | 91% (148 of 163 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Golf −1 pts, n=66 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 11836 at avg 86¢, ROI 0% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 5% of 939) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 37% of 353) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 63% of 524) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 85% (won 97% of 10020) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Hourglass | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus No | No $1 | — | No $407K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $50 | — | Yes $172K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $3 | — | Yes $29K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $1 | — | No $28K | — |